Bitcoin has surpassed the $100k price level and is gaining interest (tracked by google trends) at levels we have not seen since mid 2022 (during its most recent crash).
Here are a few thoughts that I have been putting together to add some perspective.
- The first block of BTC was mined in January 2009. It took two years to achieve $1 per, 4 years to achieve $100 per, and now 15 years from that first transaction to reach $100k (timeline is not exact). Pretty incredible stuff.
- Since 2017, the price has dropped by 30% or greater on a number of occasions (most recently in the 2nd quarter of this year, and by 50% or greater on several occasions. It has not been a straight climb up since 2009. In fact, it has been anything but.
- Analysts are still all over the map with price predictions and well-known investors are equally far apart in their views. Cathy Wood (of ARK Invest) expects a base case price of $650k+ by 2030, while Warren Buffet has said he wouldn't buy it no matter the price!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-much-100-bitcoin-could-185414994.html
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/warren-buffett-predicts-bad-ending-bitcoin-it-doomed-investment - The publicly traded and available BTC Exchange traded funds seem to be doing what they are supposed to and are tracking the price without major discrepancies. This is likely contributing to the increased demand we have seen over the past year or so
- Lastly, the incoming administration does seem to be more positive on crypto than the previous, but what that actually means is anyone's guess. I could just as easily see the administration ban one coin in favor of another (or create one themselves out of the blue!)
- Interestingly, BTC was down considerably in 2022 when inflation was rampant, and interest rates were rising. I would say this was unexpected to some, as there are those who consider it a "digital gold". It did not act like gold (or other commodities) during 2022.
If you would like to discuss in more detail, or see how this fits in your particular situation, please don't hesitate to reach out.
https://calendly.com/alexorlando/15min
-Alex